Since the middle of May, our weekly Contracts Signed reports have shown a sharp decline in activity,
especially compared to a year ago. That’s not surprising, considering that mortgage rates have doubled
this year, inflation remains near a 40-year high, 2021 was one of the strongest years ever for housing and a
decline was inevitable, and the Dow is in a bear market. But this slowdown has yet to show in our quarterly
reports, which focus on closings rather than contracts. There’s always a lag from when a contract is signed
and a sale closes, which can take months for co-ops, and even years for new developments.
It’s logical to ask about the value of a report based on closings, considering they occurred during the prior
three months, with contracts signed months before that. The answer is that until a sale closes and is
recorded, the actual sale price is seldom known. Closing data is vital in pricing apartments and for appraisals,
even though they can be a bit dated.
We do see evidence of the market’s slowdown in our third quarter report, but the full impact on sales and
prices won’t be known for at least another quarter. That’s because half of the closings in the third quarter of
2022 had their contract signed before May 18, which was when the market began to shift.
To best understand the status of Manhattan’s housing market, it’s best to look at all metrics, not just
closings. 
